Gevo, Inc. (NASDAQ:GEVO) just released its latest first-quarter report and things are not looking great. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$43m, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$0.09 some 286% larger than what the analysts had predicted. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Gevo's four analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$176.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 21% to US$0.11. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$188.0m and losses of US$0.087 per share in 2026. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$5.44, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Gevo, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$14.00 and the most bearish at US$2.00 per share. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Gevo's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 80% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Gevo is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Gevo going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.