Gold Royalty (GROY) recently reported record preliminary first quarter 2026 revenue, land agreement proceeds, and interest, while keeping its full-year production outlook unchanged and highlighting contributions from new Pedra Branca and Borborema royalties.

The preliminary first quarter update has come against a mixed trading backdrop, with a 1 day share price return of 2.30% to US$3.56, a 30 day share price return of 7.23%, and a 1 year total shareholder return of 135.76% pointing to strong long term momentum despite a weaker 90 day share price return.

If you are assessing gold exposure more broadly, this could be a useful moment to see what else is moving in the space and scan 29 elite gold producer stocks

With Gold Royalty’s shares up strongly over the past year yet still trading well below analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, the key question is whether the recent strength leaves upside on the table or if the market is already fully reflecting expectations for future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 40.7% Undervalued

Gold Royalty’s most followed narrative pegs fair value at $6.00 per share, compared with the last close of $3.56. This frames a sizeable valuation gap built on long term growth assumptions.

Multiple large, long-life mines in the portfolio have recently ramped up or are nearing commercial production (Côté, Borborema, Vareš), positioning Gold Royalty for a multiyear period of significant attributable gold production growth, directly supporting robust revenue increases and operating cash flow. The high fixed-cost structure of the business and increasing scale from newly producing royalties will result in meaningful operating leverage, translating incremental top-line growth into disproportionately higher net margins and improving overall profitability.

Want to see how this story hangs together? The narrative leans heavily on rapid revenue expansion, rising margins and a premium future earnings multiple. It is useful to examine which specific assumptions make $6.00 add up.

Result: Fair Value of $6.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upside case still leans heavily on timely ramp ups at key assets and on managing dilution risk from funding growth through additional equity.

Next Steps

With both risks and rewards in play, this is a moment to move quickly, test the assumptions against your own expectations, and weigh up 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.