GOLDMAN SACHS ON TTF: EUROPE’S INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO A COLD SHOCK IN THE WINTER RAISES THE RISK THAT TTF MIGHT NEED TO RISE TO 65 EUR/MWH

July 21 (Reuters) - GOLDMAN SACHS:

  • RAISES BAL3Q26/4Q26 TTF FORECASTS TO 60/53 EUR/MWH FROM 41/40 EUR

  • SAYS IT ASSUMES A FURTHER DELAYED NORMALIZATION OF PERSIAN GULF LNG EXPORTS AS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MIDDLE EAST REMAINS HIGH

  • SAYS EUROPE’S INCREASED VULNERABILITY TO A COLD SHOCK IN THE WINTER RAISES THE RISK THAT TTF MIGHT NEED TO RISE TO 65 EUR/MWH

  • SAYS IT ESTIMATES THAT DEC26 TTF WOULD LIKELY NEED TO MOVE ABOVE 100 EUR/MWH IF MIDDLE EAST ENERGY EXPORTS NORMALIZE ONLY GRADUALLY THROUGH 2027

  • SAYS IT ESTIMATES THAT FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED RAMP OF HORMUZ FLOWS WOULD ALLOW TTF TO SELL OFF BACK IN LINE WITH THE COAL-TO-GAS SWITCHING THRESHOLD OF 40 EUR/MWH

  • MAINTAINS BEARISH 2028/29 VIEW AT 19/16 EUR/MWH


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