GRAINS-Chicago wheat set for third weekly gain on Black Sea export concerns

Updates prices; adds analyst comment, details throughout

- Chicago wheat eased on Friday but stayed on course for a third straight weekly gain, supported by concerns over disruptions to exports from the Black Sea region as supplies tighten in Europe and North America.

The most-active wheat contract Wv1 on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) slipped 0.89% to $6.68-3/4 a bushel by 0200 GMT on profit-taking, but was up 4.45% for the week.

Prices have been supported by deteriorating U.S. crop conditions and the closure of the Kerch Strait following strikes on Ukraine, though the advanced harvest progress limits the scope for further major downgrades, analysts said.

"A single closure is minor in isolation, but should Ukraine prove able to force periodic disruptions, we believe the cumulative impact could build meaningful price support in a tightening market," BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a report.

Ukraine and Russia launched missile and drone attacks on Thursday on vessels in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, escalating hostilities in a region critical to grain exports and helping lift global wheat prices.

The International Grains Council left its 2026/27 world wheat production forecast unchanged at 821 million metric tons, but noted increased uncertainty in supplies from the Black Sea region.

Soybeans and corn were also headed for weekly gains, drawing support from strength in wheat.

Soybeans Sv1 lost 0.19% to $11.92-3/4 a bushel, but were up 0.2% for the week. Corn Cv1 fell 0.54% to $4.61-1/2 a bushel, but was up 0.1% for the week.

Soybeans were underpinned by renewed Chinese buying, while corn was supported by expectations of tighter global stocks.

The IGC cut its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 4 million tons to 1.306 billion tons, citing recent heatwaves in Europe.

However, both markets were capped by forecasts for milder crop weather in the U.S. Midwest next week, with less-threatening temperatures and increased chances of showers expected after a week of sizzling heat.