Grocery Outlet meets Q4 sales estimates

-10.85%

Grocery Outlet Holding

5.88

-10.85%

Overview

U.S. discount retailer's Q4 net sales rose 10.7%, meeting analyst expectations
Adjusted EPS and net income Q4 missed analyst expectations
Company announced closure of 36 underperforming stores under Optimization Plan

Outlook

Grocery Outlet projects fiscal 2026 net sales of $4.60 bln to $4.72 bln
Company expects fiscal 2026 comparable store sales to change between -2.0% and 0.0%
Grocery Outlet anticipates fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $220 mln to $235 mln

Result Drivers

53RD WEEK IMPACT - Net sales increase of 10.7% included $82.4 mln from the additional 53rd week
CONSUMER PRESSURE - Decline in comparable store sales attributed to reduced transaction size and delayed federal benefits

Company press release: ID:nGNX8pmnwl

Key Details

Metric	Beat/Miss	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Q4 Sales	Meet	$1.22 bln	$1.22 bln (13 Analysts)
Q4 Adjusted EPS	Miss	$0.19	$0.21 (14 Analysts)
Q4 EPS		-$2.22
Q4 Adjusted Net Income	Miss	$18.70 mln	$20.23 mln (10 Analysts)
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA	Miss	$68 mln	$72.02 mln (13 Analysts)
Q4 Gross Margin		29.70%
Q4 Gross Profit		$361.02 mln

Analyst Coverage

The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 3 "strong buy" or "buy", 10 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"
The average consensus recommendation for the food retail & distribution peer group is "buy."
Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Grocery Outlet Holding Corp is $11.50, about 29.7% above its March 3 closing price of $8.87
The stock recently traded at 11 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 13 three months ago

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