By Andrew Mills

ABU DHABI, May 20 (Reuters) - A drone struck the Barakah nuclear power plant, the only civil nuclear facility in the Arab Gulf states, the UAE confirmed on Sunday. It hit a generator on the plant's perimeter and caused no radiation leak.

The UAE later said three drones were launched from Iraq towards the plant, two of which were shot down, a reminder that war is not over, whatever ceasefire may be in place.

Gulf Currents comes to you this week from Abu Dhabi, where life goes on as usual.

For those craving xiaolongbao on Sunday, the wait for a table at Taiwanese dumpling chain Din Tai Fung in Abu Dhabi's Galleria Mall, 280 km (174 miles) away from Barakah, was 40 minutes just after confirmation the power plant had been hit.

This week: U.S. Vice President JD Vance says U.S.-Iran talks are making progress, but NATO is staying out of Hormuz and China is quietly keeping oil moving. We analyse the hard limits of Gulf soft power over Washington — and ask whether the region's influence over U.S. President Donald Trump is as deep as it looks. Plus, Iran's World Cup football team heads to Turkey to queue for U.S. and Canadian visas.

Gulf Currents will take next week off during the Eid Al Adha holiday – we'll be back in the first week of June. Follow the Iran Briefing newsletter for a summary of the latest updates in the region next week.

NEWS BRIEFING:

- Vance said Washington and Tehran have made "a lot of progress" in talks and that neither side wants a resumption of military action. The core U.S. demand remains that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, with Washington seeking a long-term agreement that prevents Iran from rebuilding its nuclear weapons capacity.

- NATO is not drawing up plans for a mission in the Strait of Hormuz, its top commander said, with any such move requiring a political decision and the approval of all 32 member states. The alliance remains divided, with several members opposed to involvement out of fear of being drawn into the Iran conflict — leaving France and Britain to lead a separate coalition aimed at securing the waterway once the situation stabilises.

- Two Chinese supertankers carrying 4 million barrels of Iraqi and Qatari crude exited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after being stranded for more than two months. The vessels are among a handful using a transit route mandated by Iran, underscoring China's ability to keep even a small volume of oil flowing.

ANALYSIS: Testing the limits of Gulf soft power?

A year ago this week, Donald Trump toured the Gulf to fanfare, trillion-dollar deal pledges and talk of a transformed U.S.-Gulf partnership.

So, when the U.S. President said this week that the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had personally asked him to hold off on renewed strikes against Iran — and that he had agreed — it was interpreted in some quarters as proof of Gulf soft power.

But others point out that if their influence is so significant, why could they not prevent war in the first place? In January, Gulf leaders urged Washington not to launch the U.S.-Israeli strikes, but the Trump administration went ahead. Iran has since launched missiles at Gulf cities, destroying energy facilities and denting the region’s safe haven reputation. The Strait of Hormuz, the export artery for Gulf oil and gas, has been effectively blocked ever since.

Trump is under intense political pressure at home to reach an accord that would reopen the Strait, with energy prices remaining high and his approval rating at only 35% ahead of looming congressional elections in November.

The U.S. President said he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before postponing it and it is possible the calls from Riyadh, Doha or Abu Dhabi may have arrived just when Trump was already looking for a reason to pause.

Daniel Benaim and Elisa Ewers wrote earlier this month in Foreign Affairs that Gulf states need the U.S. as their primary strategic partner. Even if there is a deal with Iran, the Gulf has "no good alternatives" to the U.S. relationship, they added.

GRAPHIC OF THE WEEK:

The tanker market is booming, but whether reopening the Strait of Hormuz would send freight rates soaring or crashing is still uncertain, ‌the head of Belgian tanker firm CMB.Tech said on Tuesday.

One of the prevailing views is that a reopening would trigger a restocking rush and overwhelm available tanker supply, sending rates sharply higher, CEO Alexander Saverys told Reuters, after his company tripled its first-quarter ⁠core profit as the disruption drove up freight rates and vessel prices. Read more from Mathias de Rozario and Jerome Terroy.

THE LAST WAVE:

Iran's national football team has begun a training camp in Turkey as they prepare for visa procedures ahead of the 2026 World Cup — an unusual prelude to a global tournament, co-hosted by a country Iran is at war with. Federation officials said the squad will travel to Ankara for appointments at the Canadian embassy, with some players also applying for U.S. visas, even as they are scheduled to play matches on American soil.

Preparations have already been disrupted by a wartime suspension of Iran’s domestic league, leaving players short of match fitness. Coach Amir Ghalenoei said the camp would only partially close the gap. Iran will play friendlies before naming its final squad, while uncertainty persists over entry arrangements despite FIFA's guarantees. ​

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