• Wondering if AptarGroup is priced attractively right now, or if the recent share moves have already baked in the value story you care about as an investor?
• The stock recently closed at US$132.08, with returns of 7.8% year to date, 2.2% over the last 30 days, an 8.1% decline over the last week, and a 12.4% decline over the past year, while the 3 year return sits at 21.9% and the 5 year return is flat.
• These mixed returns are landing at a time when investors are paying closer attention to how packaging and dispensing companies like AptarGroup fit into long term themes such as consumer goods, healthcare products, and sustainability focused solutions. Recent company updates and sector commentary around packaging efficiency, product safety, and brand differentiation are helping shape how the market views AptarGroup's earnings power and risk profile.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, AptarGroup scores 2 out of 6 for being undervalued, giving it a valuation score of 2. Next, we look at how different valuation methods view the stock, then finish with a way to think about valuation that goes beyond any single model.

AptarGroup scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: AptarGroup Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A discounted cash flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company could be worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to a present value.

For AptarGroup, the model uses last twelve months free cash flow of about $260.8 million, then applies a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on analyst forecasts and longer term projections. Analyst estimates feed into cash flow projections through 2028, including $402.2 million in 2026 and $451.9 million in 2027, with $452.3 million in 2028. Beyond that, Simply Wall St extrapolates further free cash flow out to 2035 using modest step ups each year.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back to today and added together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $172.06 per share. Compared with the recent share price of $132.08, this implies a 23.2% discount, which indicates that AptarGroup may be undervalued on this cash flow based view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests AptarGroup is undervalued by 23.2%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 50 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: AptarGroup Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like AptarGroup, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. Investors usually accept a higher or lower P/E depending on what they expect for future growth and how much risk they see in those earnings.

AptarGroup currently trades on a P/E of 21.65x. That sits above the Packaging industry average of about 15.92x and also above the peer average of 17.93x, so on simple comparisons the shares look more expensive than many sector names.

Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio for each company. This is a proprietary P/E level that reflects factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks. This gives you a more tailored yardstick than broad peer or industry averages. For AptarGroup, the Fair Ratio comes out at 18.73x. Compared with the actual P/E of 21.65x, the shares screen as trading above this Fair Ratio, which points to AptarGroup looking overvalued on this multiple based view.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your AptarGroup Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, and on Simply Wall St that shows up as Narratives. On the Community page, you and other investors link a clear story about AptarGroup to specific forecasts for revenue, earnings and margins, convert that story into a Fair Value, and then compare it with the current price to decide whether to buy, hold or sell. The numbers update as new news or earnings arrive. For example, one AptarGroup Narrative currently anchors on a high Fair Value of about US$212.79 per share, while another sits closer to US$133. These differences reflect varying views on how its drug delivery platforms, sustainability efforts and legal or regulatory risks might shape the company over time.

Do you think there's more to the story for AptarGroup? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.