Henry Schein, Inc. (NASDAQ:HSIC) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.5% to US$70.50 in the week after its latest quarterly results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$3.4b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Henry Schein surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.92 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Henry Schein's 15 analysts is for revenues of US$13.7b in 2026. This would reflect a modest 2.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to shoot up 21% to US$4.20. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$13.7b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.96 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$87.21, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Henry Schein at US$100.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$64.00. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's clear from the latest estimates that Henry Schein's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 3.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.9% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.8% per year. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Henry Schein is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Henry Schein following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Henry Schein's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Henry Schein going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.