Investors in Herc Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HRI) had a good week, as its shares rose 6.9% to close at US$137 following the release of its third-quarter results. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of US$1.3b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 58% to hit US$0.90 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Herc Holdings after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Herc Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of US$5.05b in 2026. This reflects a sizeable 23% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Herc Holdings is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$9.54 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$5.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.42 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Althoughthe analysts have revised their earnings forecasts for next year, they've also lifted the consensus price target 5.6% to US$167, suggesting the revised estimates are not indicative of a weaker long-term future for the business. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Herc Holdings at US$200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$120. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Herc Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 17% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.0% per year. So although Herc Holdings is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Herc Holdings. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Herc Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Herc Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.