There's been a major selloff in Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:AKBA) shares in the week since it released its quarterly report, with the stock down 23% to US$1.16. Revenues were a bright spot, with US$54m in revenue arriving 3.6% ahead of expectations, although statutory earnings didn't fare nearly so well, recording a loss of US$0.03, some 7.1% below consensus predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from five analysts covering Akebia Therapeutics is for revenues of US$216.2m in 2026. This implies a discernible 7.0% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$0.13 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$222.5m and US$0.056 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Akebia Therapeutics after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$4.20, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Akebia Therapeutics at US$6.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$3.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Akebia Therapeutics' past performance and to peers in the same industry. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 4.7% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 9.2% decline in revenue until the end of 2026. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 22% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Akebia Therapeutics is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Akebia Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.