Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. It was a workmanlike result, with revenues of US$2.4b coming in 2.1% ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.33, in line with analyst appraisals. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Following the latest results, Fastenal's 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$9.26b in 2026. This would be an okay 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 6.7% to US$1.26. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.14b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.24 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$47.84. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Fastenal, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$55.00 and the most bearish at US$39.90 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Fastenal's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 12% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.1% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.2% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Fastenal to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Fastenal analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.