A week ago, GRAIL, Inc. (NASDAQ:GRAL) came out with a strong set of first-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$41m leading estimates by 4.2%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$2.29 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for GRAIL from eight analysts is for revenues of US$181.4m in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 16% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are supposed to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$10.72. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$180.3m and US$11.08 per share in losses. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

The average price target held steady at US$68.57, seeming to indicate that business is performing in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on GRAIL, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$82.00 and the most bearish at US$56.00 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that GRAIL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 22% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 35% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 552 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 21% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while GRAIL's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$68.57, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on GRAIL. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for GRAIL going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - GRAIL has 5 warning signs (and 2 which are significant) we think you should know about.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.