A week ago, Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) came out with a strong set of second-quarter numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Revenues beat expectations coming in atUS$13m, ahead of estimates by 2.1%. Statutory losses were somewhat smaller thanthe analysts expected, coming in at US$0.35 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Following last week's earnings report, Ocular Therapeutix's eleven analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be US$52.6m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$1.48. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$51.9m and losses of US$1.60 per share in 2026. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment in the recent updates, with the analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for losses per share, even though the revenue numbers were unchanged.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$27.09, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Ocular Therapeutix analyst has a price target of US$34.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$18.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Ocular Therapeutix's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.9% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 6.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.1% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Ocular Therapeutix.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Ocular Therapeutix's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$27.09, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ocular Therapeutix analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.