Viasat, Inc. (NASDAQ:VSAT) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$1.2b and leading to a corresponding blowout in statutory losses. The loss per share was US$0.38, some 14% larger than the analysts forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Viasat's ten analysts is for revenues of US$4.85b in 2027. This would reflect a reasonable 4.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are forecast to balloon 434% to US$1.14 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$4.86b and losses of US$1.38 per share in 2027. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Viasat'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a favorable reduction in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$97.04, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Viasat at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$49.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Viasat's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Viasat's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 6.6% annualised growth rate until the end of 2027 being well below the historical 17% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Viasat.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Viasat going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.