It's been a good week for Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 8.0% to US$32.18. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$214m were what the analysts expected, Heritage Insurance Holdings surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$2.05 per share, an impressive 88% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Heritage Insurance Holdings after the latest results.

Taking into account the latest results, Heritage Insurance Holdings' three analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$861.7m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 26% to US$5.50 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$861.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.32 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The analysts have been lifting their price targets on the back of the earnings upgrade, with the consensus price target rising 16% to US$39.00. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Heritage Insurance Holdings analyst has a price target of US$42.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$36.00. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Heritage Insurance Holdings is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Heritage Insurance Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 1.7% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.4% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Heritage Insurance Holdings is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Heritage Insurance Holdings' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Heritage Insurance Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Heritage Insurance Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.