Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) closed FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$2,028 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.62, alongside trailing 12 month revenue of US$8.5 billion and a net loss of US$747 million. The company has seen quarterly revenue range from US$1,813 million to US$2,478 million over the last four reported periods, while basic EPS has swung between a loss of US$1.44 and a profit of US$0.59. This backdrop is prompting investors to focus on how much of that volatility is flowing through to underlying margins.

See our full analysis for Hertz Global Holdings.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to compare these results with the widely followed Hertz narratives to see which stories the latest margins support and which ones the data starts to challenge.

US$747 million trailing loss keeps profitability story front and center

• On a trailing 12 month basis to Q4 FY 2025, Hertz booked a net loss of US$747 million on US$8.5 billion of revenue, with basic EPS at a loss of US$2.41.
• Consensus narrative points to pressure from fleet costs, debt and modernization needs, and that does line up with the sustained losses and modest 3.8% forecast revenue growth. However, the expectation of earnings turning positive within three years contrasts with the fact that every trailing 12 month EPS data point in the last six quarters remains in loss territory.
  • For example, trailing basic EPS moved from a loss of US$9.35 to a loss of US$2.41 over the last five reported trailing periods, which still leaves a sizeable earnings gap to close before any profitability target is hit.
  • At the same time, forecasts calling for very large annualized earnings growth and a return to profitability lean heavily on improvement from these loss levels rather than on any currently reported positive net income trend.

Quarterly swings from US$184 million profit to US$443 million loss

• Within FY 2025, net income went from a profit of US$184 million in Q3 to a loss of US$194 million in Q4, while Q1 and Q2 also showed losses of US$443 million and US$294 million respectively, illustrating sizeable moves in profitability from quarter to quarter.
• Bears argue that volatile used vehicle resale conditions and higher fleet and electrification costs could keep earnings unstable, and this pattern of quarterly profit in only one of the last six reported quarters, against multiple quarterly losses including US$1.33 billion in Q3 FY 2024, fits closely with that cautious view.
  • The shift from a US$1.33 billion loss in Q3 FY 2024 to a US$184 million profit in Q3 FY 2025 highlights how dependent results can be on fleet depreciation, residual values and resale gains, which are exactly the areas critics flag as hard to control.
  • Because only one quarter in the FY 2025 set shows positive net income, bears can point to this as episodic strength rather than a stable earnings base that would reliably support future debt service and reinvestment.

On swings like these, skeptics argue the story is far from settled, and they track each quarter for signs the profit gap is really closing before giving much weight to recovery forecasts. 🐻 Hertz Global Holdings Bear Case

Low 0.2x P/S vs industry, but balance sheet carries clear stress

• Shares trade on a P/S of about 0.2x against an indicated US Transportation industry level of roughly 1.1x and a peer average of about 2.1x, while the business remains loss making over the last 12 months and carries less than a year of cash runway with negative shareholders’ equity.
• Bullish investors point to the low P/S multiple as a sign the market is pricing in a lot of bad news already, and argue that forecasts for very large annualized earnings growth and a possible return to profitability within three years could make that revenue base more valuable. However, the ongoing net loss of US$747 million and the short cash runway mean the balance sheet still needs to support any turnaround story.
  • The gap between a 0.2x P/S and higher industry and peer multiples gives bulls room to argue for upside if earnings improve, yet the current equity deficit and liquidity pressure are concrete constraints that could require further balance sheet action before any re rating.
  • With the share price at US$4.50 compared with an allowed reference analyst target of US$4.75, there is only a small difference between price and that target, which keeps attention firmly on whether the reported losses and leverage profile shift in a way that justifies any different valuation over time.

Supporters who focus on that low sales multiple often stress the recovery angle, and track each earnings set to see if the numbers start to match the more optimistic narrative. 🐂 Hertz Global Holdings Bull Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Hertz Global Holdings on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

If this mix of pressure and potential has you on the fence, take a moment to review the full picture for yourself, including 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Hertz is dealing with sizeable recurring losses, volatile quarterly earnings and a stressed balance sheet, which together make its path to consistent profitability uncertain.

If this level of earnings volatility and balance sheet pressure feels uncomfortable, consider shifting your focus to companies in our 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that aim to keep risk in check from day one.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.