It's been a good week for HF Foods Group Inc. (NASDAQ:HFFG) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest first-quarter results, and the shares gained 9.8% to US$2.01. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$312m were what the analysts expected, HF Foods Group surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.02 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from HF Foods Group's three analysts is for revenues of US$1.27b in 2026. This would reflect a reasonable 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. HF Foods Group is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.03 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.27b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.01 in 2026. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed, we can see there's been a massive increase in earnings per share expectations, suggesting that the analysts have become more bullish after the latest result.

The consensus price target fell 19% to US$5.67, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic HF Foods Group analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$5.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting HF Foods Group is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that HF Foods Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 3.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than HF Foods Group.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards HF Foods Group following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that HF Foods Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of HF Foods Group's future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple HF Foods Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of HF Foods Group's balance sheet, and whether we think HF Foods Group is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.