Homrich & Berg says unprofitable IPOs likely lag despite SpaceX debut popping 19.2%

  • Homrich & Berg analysis flagged weak post-IPO performance since 2021, despite SpaceX’s June 12 debut and 19.2% first-day gain.
  • From 1980-2024, IPOs averaged a 19% first-day pop, then a 5.6% 12-month gain versus 11.5% for the Russell 3000.
  • For 2021-2024, the average one-year IPO return was about -38%, led by the 2021 cohort’s -49% return.
  • Size helped historically, but large IPOs still lagged peers; profitability drove outcomes, with profitable IPOs materially outperforming unprofitable deals.
  • Russell, Nasdaq, MSCI agreed to fast-track SpaceX index inclusion within 15 days, supporting passive demand despite no near-term S&P 500 entry.


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