Homrich & Berg warns low SPR levels limit US ability to curb oil-driven inflation if Hormuz disruption persists

  • Homrich & Berg analysis flagged the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve near the lowest levels since the 1980s as Iran conflict drawdowns reaccelerate.
  • SPR stood at 349 million barrels following a 66 million-barrel drawdown during the conflict; prior releases totaled 263 million barrels through the pandemic and Ukraine war.
  • Estimated physical floor near 140 million barrels, roughly 20% of maximum capacity, could limit further releases if Strait of Hormuz traffic stays constrained.
  • Tighter SPR headroom could reduce the government’s ability to cap crude prices, raising inflation pressure.
  • Higher energy-driven inflation could keep US rates higher for longer, with risk of further tightening if price pressures persist.


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