Hormuz Shipping Under Pressure as Iran Moves to Assert Dominance, Raising Pressure on Trump

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed after the resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran. 

Thirty vessels transited the critical waterway on Saturday, down from 34 on Friday and 54 on Thursday, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) said today. Nineteen vessels exited Hormuz carrying about 3.9 million barrels of crude, according to Windward, a maritime analytics company. 

"Maritime traffic remains at a post-conflict high across both the southern Omani corridor and the northern Iranian-controlled route," JMIC said. "US-assisted commercial transits continued uninterrupted despite the elevated threat environment."

The US and Iran have traded attacks on each other’s military infrastructure. Both have accused the other of violating a ceasefire agreement. The violence threatens US efforts to return shipping traffic to the pre-war average of about 138 vessels a day. 

Analysts say Iran is using the crisis to reshape power dynamics in Hormuz and replace long‑standing navigational norms. Tehran is leveraging the disruption to strengthen its position over the waterway and maintain pressure on energy markets.

US Forces Strike Iran

The conflict reignited on Thursday after Tehran attacked a container ship, prompting Washington to strike Iranian targets the next day. JMIC said commercial vessels, including a tanker, had been targeted in the past 72 hours. 

US forces launched strikes overnight Saturday "in direct response to continued Iranian aggression," Central Command said on X. US aircraft targeted Iranian surveillance infrastructure, communication systems, air defense sites, drone storage facilities, and minelayer capabilities. 

"Iran was given a chance to honor the ceasefire agreement but elected not to," the US military’s Central Command said in a statement posted on X on Saturday. President Donald Trump said on Truth Social that "there may come a point when we are no longer able to be reasonable." 

Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned the US strikes as a blatant violation of the interim peace deal. He said Tehran would use all its capabilities to defend the country’s sovereignty, security, and national interests. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched strikes at the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the 5th Fleet naval base in Bahrain.

"If the Iranian regime thinks President Trump is going to stand by while they take an intentional waterway hostage, they’re sadly mistaken," US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz, said Sunday. "The international community stands with the US in opposition to Tehran’s menacing behavior."

Iran Warns About Hormuz

Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araqchi warned today that renewed fighting would delay reopening the strategic waterway. He called on "all parties" to refrain from interfering in Iran’s management of the strait. 

His comments came three days after the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council held a ministerial meeting in Bahrain. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Bahrain Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani co-chaired the meeting, 

The ministers called in a joint statement for the "free, unconditional, and unrestricted navigation" through the strait. They also rejected Iran’s plans to impose any "tolls, fees, or attempts to assert control over the Strait." 

Kuwait said it intercepted two missiles with no material damage or injuries. Bahrain reported that the strikes targeted a residential building, but said there were no fatalities 

Iran Wants to Tighten Hormuz Grip

Noam Raydan, a Washington Institute senior fellow, said that Iran has no intention of returning to business as usual. 

"Tehran’s actions demonstrate that traditional arrangements in Hormuz have collapsed and a new system is taking shape aimed at cementing Iranian control there," Raydan wrote on Friday. "Returning to the prewar navigational order would deprive Iran of its strongest remaining source of leverage—one that has allowed it to exert pressure on regional countries and global energy markets alike." 

The situation puts Trump in a difficult position as he looks to ease the war’s impact on the US economy. Analysts warn that instability in Hormuz could raise freight costs and rerouting premiums, creating ripple effects across global supply chains.

"Either the US escalates or gives IRGC control of the Strait of Hormuz," HFI Research said on X.  "Given that Trump has made it obvious that he does not want to escalate, I fear that the IRGC would just keep escalating until they gain control."