• In late 2025, FanDuel and CME Group launched the FanDuel Predicts app across several U.S. states, offering event contracts on financial benchmarks, economic indicators, cultural events, and sports via a KYC-verified mobile platform with prices between $0.01 and $0.99 per contract.
• The rollout effectively brings prediction-market style trading on indices, commodities, cryptocurrencies, and macro data to a nationwide retail audience, expanding CME’s reach well beyond traditional institutional futures users.
• Next, we’ll examine how this consumer-facing prediction platform could influence CME Group’s investment narrative built around fee resilience and product innovation.

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CME Group Investment Narrative Recap

To own CME Group, you need to believe in the durability of its role as a core infrastructure provider for global derivatives and in its ability to keep expanding its product set as markets evolve. The FanDuel Predicts launch broadens CME’s touchpoint with retail users, but its financial impact on near term volume growth and the key risk of regulatory shifts around retail derivatives access looks more incremental than transformational for now.

Among recent announcements, CME’s record 2025 average daily volume of 28.1 million contracts across interest rates, commodities, metals, and cryptocurrencies is most relevant, because it underlines how new products and venues tend to plug into an already scaled ecosystem. FanDuel Predicts fits that pattern as one more access point into CME-referenced benchmarks at a time when the company is already handling record levels of trading activity in its core franchises.

Yet investors should also weigh the growing risk that regulators tighten rules on retail derivatives access at the very moment CME is expanding its consumer footprint with...

CME Group's narrative projects $7.3 billion revenue and $4.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 4.4% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.6 billion earnings increase from $3.7 billion today.

Uncover how CME Group's forecasts yield a $287.07 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Four Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span roughly US$199.70 to US$287.07 per share, reflecting very different expectations for CME’s future. Against that backdrop, the key risk around potential regulatory constraints on retail derivatives and prediction markets could have important implications for how those expectations play out across CME’s volumes and fee resilience.

Explore 4 other fair value estimates on CME Group - why the stock might be worth as much as 7% more than the current price!

Build Your Own CME Group Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your CME Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free CME Group research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate CME Group's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.