• In recent weeks, Intel’s AI-focused chip push has intersected with multiple developments, including SCRT Labs integrating Intel Trust Authority into SecretVM for default hardware attestation and Intel–linked roles in the Terafab project and a preliminary Apple chip-making arrangement, while shareholder proposals on China risk, human rights due diligence, and chair–CEO separation failed at the May annual meeting.
• Together with foundry yield improvements, Tenstorrent acquisition talks and high-profile partnerships such as McLaren Racing and Terafab, these moves highlight Intel’s bid to become a central provider of secure, AI-ready compute across data centers, edge devices, and third-party platforms, even as it contends with recent server CPU market share loss to AMD and Arm.
• We’ll now examine how rising AI CPU demand and foundry traction, highlighted by early Apple production talks, may reshape Intel’s investment narrative.

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Intel Investment Narrative Recap

To own Intel today, you have to believe its AI centric CPU and foundry shift can eventually translate rising demand and improving yields into sustainable profits, despite current losses and rich expectations. Near term, the key catalyst is whether AI server CPU orders and 18A foundry traction, including early Apple discussions, keep converting into concrete volume. The biggest risk remains execution and share loss in server CPUs, and the latest market share data makes that risk feel more immediate.

The SCRT Labs integration of Intel Trust Authority into SecretVM underlines how Intel is trying to harden its AI story around verifiable, secure compute, not just raw performance. As confidential AI inference, financial workloads, and audited compute adopt hardware attestation, this kind of security footprint can reinforce the AI CPU demand narrative, but it does not directly offset concerns about server CPU share pressure or the heavy spending required to scale the foundry business.

Yet investors should also weigh how quickly execution issues in server CPUs could snowball into something more serious for margins and confidence if...

Intel's narrative projects $71.2 billion revenue and $8.0 billion earnings by 2029. This implies an earnings increase from current levels to reach that $8.0 billion target.

Uncover how Intel's forecasts yield a $75.42 fair value, a 36% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were far more cautious, assuming only about 6 percent annual revenue growth and just US$3.3 billion of earnings by 2029, so if you are watching Intel’s AI wins and foundry progress you should also consider that others still see organizational complexity and older node dependence as big unresolved issues.

Explore 17 other fair value estimates on Intel - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Intel research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Intel research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Intel's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.