• Hess Midstream LP recently reported past first-quarter 2026 results, posting revenue of US$390.1 million and net income of US$87.6 million, while reaffirming full-year 2026 net income guidance of US$650 million to US$700 million and issuing detailed throughput and operating targets across its gathering, processing, and terminal assets.
• The company also raised its quarterly cash distribution to US$0.7792 per Class A share, cut 2026 capital expenditure guidance to about US$105 million, and lifted adjusted free cash flow expectations to US$910 million–US$960 million, supported by accretive US$60 million share and unit repurchases.
• We’ll now examine how Hess Midstream’s higher distribution and upgraded free cash flow outlook affect the investment narrative built before these updates.

Find 51 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Hess Midstream Investment Narrative Recap

To own Hess Midstream, you need to be comfortable with a fee-based midstream business that leans heavily on Bakken volumes from Chevron-operated Hess and uses that cash flow for distributions and buybacks. The latest quarter supports that income-focused story, but does not materially change the near term catalyst around execution on 2026 free cash flow guidance, nor the key risk that any shift in Chevron’s Bakken drilling plans could pressure throughput and earnings.

The most relevant update for this narrative is Hess Midstream’s higher 2026 adjusted free cash flow guidance of US$910 million to US$960 million, paired with reduced capital spending of about US$105 million. For investors focused on distributions and capital returns, this combination directly underpins the appeal of the stock in the short term, while still sitting against the backdrop of concentrated exposure to Bakken volumes and Chevron’s long term development approach.

Yet even with stronger free cash flow guidance, the concentration in a single basin and reliance on Chevron’s drilling plans are risks investors should be aware of...

Hess Midstream's narrative projects $1.7 billion revenue and $505.3 million earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Hess Midstream's forecasts yield a $37.50 fair value, a 3% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$13 to US$94 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set those against Hess Midstream’s reliance on Bakken throughput tied to Chevron’s drilling activity, it becomes even more important to compare several viewpoints on what could drive the business over time.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Hess Midstream - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Hess Midstream research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hess Midstream research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hess Midstream's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.