• In June 2026, Merck reported positive Phase 3 ATLAS-UC results for tulisokibart in moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis, alongside recent US FDA approvals expanding KEYTRUDA–WELIREG use in kidney cancer and broadening CAPVAXIVE’s indication to higher-risk children and adolescents.
• Together, these updates highlight Merck’s effort to build a broader immunology, oncology and vaccines portfolio that could lessen its dependence on KEYTRUDA over time.
• We’ll now examine how tulisokibart’s late-stage success may influence Merck’s investment narrative built around post-KEYTRUDA pipeline depth.

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Merck Investment Narrative Recap

To own Merck today, you really have to believe that its growing mix of oncology, vaccines and immunology can gradually offset the eventual KEYTRUDA patent loss. The latest tulisokibart Phase 3 win, together with fresh approvals for KEYTRUDA–WELIREG and CAPVAXIVE, supports the near term catalyst of a broader late stage pipeline, but does not remove the central risk that post KEYTRUDA revenue replacement could prove slower or smaller than hoped.

Among the recent updates, the positive ATLAS UC Phase 3 induction results for tulisokibart look most relevant. They back Merck’s push into immune mediated diseases with a single asset being tested across seven indications, adding a different type of potential growth driver alongside oncology and vaccines. How regulators respond to the full UC data package, including maintenance results, could influence how much confidence investors place in Merck’s post KEYTRUDA story.

Yet investors should be aware that if tulisokibart stumbles in later studies or faces intense competition, Merck’s ability to replace KEYTRUDA after 2028 could...

Merck's narrative projects $76.5 billion revenue and $23.7 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 5.1% yearly revenue growth and a $14.8 billion earnings increase from $8.9 billion today.

Uncover how Merck's forecasts yield a $129.74 fair value, a 8% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this news, the most optimistic analysts were already assuming Merck could lift earnings to about US$30.8 billion by 2029, so tulisokibart’s success might either support that view or expose how much their optimism hinges on Merck overcoming concentrated oncology risks and regulatory pressure, reminding you that well informed investors can still reach very different conclusions about the same stock.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Merck - why the stock might be worth 15% less than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Merck research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Merck research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Merck's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.