• In March 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited issued earnings guidance for fiscal 2025, projecting revenue of about RMB 21.44 billion–RMB 21.45 billion, operating profit of roughly RMB 3.30 billion, adjusted operating profit of about RMB 3.67 billion, and profit of around RMB 1.32 billion–RMB 1.33 billion, driven by a richer product portfolio, stronger brand recognition, and broader, more efficient sales channels.
• An interesting twist is that, despite the projected revenue growth and higher adjusted operating profit, MINISO expects full-year profit to be roughly half of the prior year, highlighting the impact of non-operating and non-cash factors on bottom-line results even as its international footprint and store network continue to expand.
• We’ll now examine how MINISO’s forecast of higher revenue but lower net profit reshapes the company’s existing investment narrative and expectations.

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MINISO Group Holding Investment Narrative Recap

To own MINISO, you need to believe its fast global rollout, IP-led product strategy, and capital-light model can keep driving higher revenue and operating profit, even as reported net profit faces accounting and non-operating headwinds. The latest FY2025 guidance, with revenue growth but roughly halved profit, does not materially change the near term catalyst of store and IP expansion, but it sharpens the key risk around cost control and earnings volatility.

In this context, the ongoing share buyback program and rising dividends stand out. Since August 2024, MINISO has repurchased over 14.5 million shares and has raised its semi annual dividend, signaling continued confidence in cash generation. Set against FY2025 guidance that points to a wide gap between operating and bottom line profit, this capital return track record is an important counterbalance for investors watching near term earnings pressure.

But even with strong revenue guidance, investors should be aware that rising international costs and store expansion could still...

MINISO Group Holding's narrative projects CN¥31.7 billion revenue and CN¥4.9 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 19.4% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about CN¥2.5 billion from CN¥2.4 billion today.

Uncover how MINISO Group Holding's forecasts yield a $26.87 fair value, a 62% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about CN¥28.8 billion and earnings near CN¥4.0 billion by 2028, and the new guidance could either ease or deepen those concerns about margin pressure and offline focused growth...

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on MINISO Group Holding - why the stock might be worth just $23.00!

Form Your Own Verdict

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your MINISO Group Holding research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free MINISO Group Holding research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate MINISO Group Holding's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.