• Kalshi recently announced a partnership with Brazilian broker XP Inc. to offer regulated prediction markets to XP clients holding international investment accounts, initially via the Clear Corretora platform and focused on financial and economic event-based contracts.
• This move introduces a new asset class alongside equities, ETFs, bonds, and derivatives on XP’s international platform, underscoring XP’s push to broaden product diversification and financial innovation for Brazilian investors despite an evolving regulatory backdrop.
• Next, we’ll explore how XP’s introduction of Kalshi-powered prediction markets as a new asset class could influence its existing investment narrative.

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XP Investment Narrative Recap

To own XP, you have to believe in its ability to keep gaining share as Brazilians shift savings into investment platforms, while managing fee pressure and rising costs. The Kalshi partnership adds a niche, event based product that supports XP’s broader product diversification catalyst, but it does not change the core near term swing factors, which still center on competitive pressure from banks and fintechs, and the risk that regulation or taxes dampen client activity.

Among recent developments, XP’s Q4 2025 results stand out as the most relevant backdrop for this new asset class, with full year 2025 revenue of R$18,398.6 million and net income of R$5,169.79 million supporting continued investment in product innovation. Against that earnings base, prediction markets via Kalshi look more like an incremental extension of XP’s global investments suite than a primary driver of its short term financial story.

Yet beneath XP’s product expansion, investors should also be aware of the growing risk that regulatory and tax changes could...

XP's narrative projects R$25.2 billion revenue and R$6.8 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how XP's forecasts yield a $23.89 fair value, a 31% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the lowest ranked analysts were already cautious, assuming XP’s revenue would reach about R$24.4 billion and earnings R$6.4 billion by 2028, and this new Kalshi partnership directly touches their concern about rising regulatory and technology risks, so it could either soften or reinforce that more pessimistic view once they update their numbers.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on XP - why the stock might be worth as much as 49% more than the current price!

The Verdict Is Yours

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your XP research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free XP research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate XP's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.