• Recently, Deere reported that its shares underperformed the broader market ahead of its now-past August 20, 2026 earnings release, which analysts expected to show modest year-over-year growth in earnings per share and revenue.
• At the same time, labor contract disputes with the United Auto Workers and mixed valuation signals have raised fresh questions about Deere’s cost structure and long-term profitability assumptions.
• We’ll now examine how the unresolved United Auto Workers labor dispute might influence Deere’s existing investment narrative and longer-term margin expectations.

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Deere Investment Narrative Recap

To own Deere, you generally need to believe that its core markets for agricultural and construction equipment, plus its growing tech and services offerings, can support resilient earnings even through cycles. The unresolved United Auto Workers labor dispute directly targets that belief by injecting uncertainty into Deere’s cost base and margin outlook, making labor terms a key near term catalyst and arguably the biggest current risk to the story.

Against that backdrop, Deere’s recent addition to the Russell 1000 Value Defensive and Russell 1000 Defensive indices stands out. Index inclusion does not change the business, but it can affect trading dynamics around events like the August 20, 2026 earnings release, potentially amplifying how investors react to any new information on labor costs, margins, or management’s updated guidance.

Yet behind Deere’s appeal, there is a less visible risk around unresolved labor costs and what they could mean for future margin pressure that investors should be aware of...

Deere's narrative projects $48.4 billion revenue and $9.3 billion earnings by 2029.

Uncover how Deere's forecasts yield a $644.21 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Compared with the consensus view, the most pessimistic analysts already assumed only about US$45.6 billion of revenue and US$6.1 billion of earnings by 2029, so if labor disputes further pressure costs or volumes, their “flat growth with higher risk” scenario could look less extreme, reminding you that informed investors can reasonably reach very different conclusions about Deere’s future and that both these views might shift as this story develops.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Deere - why the stock might be worth just $644.21!

The Verdict Is Yours

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your Deere research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Deere research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Deere's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.