HP stock overview

HP (HPQ) is drawing attention after recent share price moves, with the stock now around $22.88. Investors are weighing its mixed return profile, including a decline over the past month but a gain over the past 3 months.

At the current share price of $22.88, HP’s 1 month share price return of down 15.38% contrasts with a 90 day share price return of up 20.11% and a 1 year total shareholder return of down 2.89%. This suggests recent momentum has cooled after a stronger run, while longer term total shareholder returns over 3 and 5 years, down 15.76% and down 10.30% respectively, indicate investors are still assessing the balance of risk and reward.

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With HP trading close to analysts’ average price target and an estimated intrinsic value suggesting a sizeable discount, the key question now is whether the stock is quietly undervalued or whether the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 10% Undervalued

On the most followed narrative, HP’s fair value is set at $22.91, almost exactly in line with the current $22.88 share price, yet still flagged as modestly undervalued.

Expansion and momentum in recurring digital and managed service models (such as Device-as-a-Service and consumer print subscriptions) are increasing the share of predictable, higher-margin revenue streams, supporting future earnings and operational stability.

HP's focus on responsible innovation and sustainability exemplified by significant recycled content in devices and advances toward net zero aligns with growing enterprise and consumer preference for eco-friendly technology, strengthening competitive positioning and supporting revenue and margin growth over the long term. Read the complete narrative.

The fair value story for HP rests on a tight balance, modest revenue expectations and slightly higher margins, plus a future earnings multiple that sits well below many tech peers. Curious which exact earnings path, margin assumptions and share count changes are doing the heavy lifting in that model.

Result: Fair Value of $22.91 (UNDERVALUED)

However, HP’s core print market headwinds and intense PC pricing pressure could still weigh on revenue and margins, which challenges the case for a modest undervaluation.

Next Steps

With mixed signals around HP's valuation, risk and reward, it makes sense to look more closely at the underlying data and narrative before reacting. To weigh the concerns against the potential upside, review the 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs

Looking for more investment ideas beyond HP?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.