HP (HPQ) has just put AI hardware at the center of its story, using CES 2026 to showcase the EliteBoard G1a keyboard PC, refreshed EliteBook X G2 business laptops, and expanded OmniBook and HyperX gaming lines.

Despite the CES 2026 product launches around AI PCs, business laptops, and gaming gear, HP’s recent market performance has been weak, with a 30 day share price return of a 14.39% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of a 32.19% decline. This suggests momentum has been fading as investors reassess both growth potential and risk.

If HP’s AI push has caught your attention, it might be worth seeing what else is happening across high growth tech and AI stocks. You may spot other hardware or chip names shaping the next wave of computing.

HP’s shares have seen pressure despite a fresh slate of AI PCs and gaming gear, and the stock trades at a lower P/E than its industry. Is that a genuine discount, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 18.2% Undervalued

HP’s most followed narrative points to a fair value above the last close of US$21.18, framing the current price as a sizeable discount worth unpacking.

Persistent structural cost reduction initiatives, including manufacturing diversification outside China, AI-enabled automation, and a $2b annualized savings target, are set to drive sustainable improvements in net margins and bottom-line earnings resilience.

HP's focus on responsible innovation and sustainability, exemplified by significant recycled content in devices and advances toward net zero, aligns with growing enterprise and consumer preference for eco-friendly technology. This supports competitive positioning as well as revenue and margin performance over the long term.

Curious how modest revenue growth, steady margins, and a specific future P/E all add up to this valuation call, plus a higher discount rate baked in? The most followed narrative ties together earnings expectations, share count shifts, and required returns in a way that might surprise you. If you want to see exactly which assumptions have to hold for this pricing gap to close, the full narrative spells it out in black and white.

Result: Fair Value of $25.88 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to keep an eye on shrinking print demand and tighter PC pricing, which could pressure margins and challenge the case that the stock is 18.2% undervalued.

Build Your Own HP Narrative

If you are not convinced by this view or simply prefer to weigh the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your HP research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.