Rumors of a leadership shakeup at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) are heating up, and prediction markets are starting to price in a significant probability that CEO Tim Cook could step down sooner rather than later.

According to data from Polymarket, bettors are currently pricing a 33% chance that Cook will leave his post before 2027.

This places him higher than other tech heavyweights like Sam Altman (18%) and Sundar Pichai (16%).

The market doesn’t expect an immediate exit as a separate contract asking if Cook will be out by March 31 is trading at just 10%.

The Speculation: Why The Smoke?

The surge in odds follows a flurry of reports in January 2026 regarding Apple's succession planning.

Prominent investor Ross Gerber, co-founder of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, recently called for Cook’s resignation, arguing that the tech giant has failed to keep pace with rivals like Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL).

“It’s time for Tim Apple to resign. He hasn’t done a thing really in years,” Gerber wrote on X in late January.

He added that Apple “completely missed the AI boat” and is now in a position where it “needs Google to survive,” referring to Apple’s recent reliance on Google’s Gemini models to power Siri.

“No excuses. Tim Cook needs to go,” Gerber concluded.

Adding fuel to the fire is the quiet elevation of John Ternus, Apple's Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering.

In early 2026, reports surfaced that Cook expanded Ternus's portfolio to include oversight of Apple's legendary Design Team.

Bloomberg and the New York Times have identified Ternus as the likely heir apparent.

Ternus is viewed as a steady hand, similar to Cook, but investors like Gerber seem to be clamoring for a visionary pivot rather than more of the same operational efficiency.

Why It Matters

Tim Cook has overseen a golden era of profitability for Apple, taking the company from a market cap of under $400 billion to over $3 trillion.

Investors will be watching closely to see if a transition to Ternus—a hardware veteran—signals a doubling down on physical products or if Apple will continue its pivot toward services.

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