Shareholders might have noticed that Ingredion Incorporated (NYSE:INGR) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to US$107 in the past week. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of US$1.8b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 9.8% to hit US$2.22 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, Ingredion's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$7.26b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 2.0% to US$10.48 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$7.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.16 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$122, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Ingredion at US$140 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$110. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Ingredion is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Ingredion's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 1.7% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 2.4% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Ingredion is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Ingredion. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Ingredion going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It might also be worth considering whether Ingredion's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.