Market forces rained on the parade of Intchains Group Limited (NASDAQ:ICG) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for next year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously. Investors however, have been notably more optimistic about Intchains Group recently, with the stock price up a magnificent 46% to US$1.58 in the past week. With such a sharp increase, it seems brokers may have seen something that is not yet being priced in by the wider market.

After the downgrade, the twin analysts covering Intchains Group are now predicting revenues of CN¥398m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a substantial 54% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to nosedive 100% to CN¥0.0071 in the same period. Previously, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥498m and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.68 in 2026. It looks like analyst sentiment has declined substantially, with a pretty serious reduction to revenue estimates and a large cut to earnings per share numbers as well.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 30% to US$3.50.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that Intchains Group is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 41% annualised growth until the end of 2026. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 9.5% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 20% annually. So it looks like Intchains Group is expected to grow faster than its competitors, at least for a while.

The Bottom Line

The biggest issue in the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds lay ahead for Intchains Group. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. After such a stark change in sentiment from analysts, we'd understand if readers now felt a bit wary of Intchains Group.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for Intchains Group going out as far as 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks with high insider ownership.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.