It's been a pretty great week for Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:NTLA) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to US$11.94 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Revenues fell badly short of expectations, with revenue of US$7.7m being some 41% below what the analysts had forecast. Statutory losses were in line with forecasts, with Intellia Therapeutics losing US$0.80 a share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

After the latest results, the consensus from Intellia Therapeutics' 17 analysts is for revenues of US$52.3m in 2026, which would reflect a definite 12% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$3.18 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$59.2m and losses of US$3.17 per share in 2026. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

The average price target fell 8.5% to US$23.94, with the analysts clearly concerned about the weaker revenue outlook and expectation of ongoing losses. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Intellia Therapeutics at US$61.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$8.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 23% by the end of 2026. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 9.9% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 23% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Intellia Therapeutics is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Intellia Therapeutics. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Intellia Therapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.