Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is back in focus after a mixed quarterly report that missed earnings expectations but confirmed strong revenue growth, a record backlog, and fresh contract wins that include NASA and a large communications program.

After a sharp 52.1% decline in the 3 month share price return, Intuitive Machines has still delivered a 41.8% 1 month share price return and a very large 3 year total shareholder return of 312.61%. This suggests that recent contract wins and the quarterly update are reshaping how investors view its risk and growth profile.

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Intuitive Machines now appears to be a company with serious contracts and a growing backlog, yet its share price has whipsawed in both directions. After this latest surge, is the business quality already fully reflected in the valuation, or not?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.3% Undervalued

At a last close of $18.32, the most followed narrative on Intuitive Machines pegs fair value at $23.00, which points to a meaningful valuation gap if that view holds.

Intuitive Machines (LUNR) has successfully shifted from a high-risk startup to a Lunar Infrastructure Prime, backed by a $943M backlog and a strategic pivot toward high-margin data services via the Lanteris acquisition. While the trajectory toward positive Adjusted EBITDA in 2026 is clear, the current stock price reflects a "perfection premium" that overlooks recent share dilution.

Want to see what underpins that $23.00 fair value for Intuitive Machines? The narrative leans on a sharp revenue inflection, margin uplift, and a much larger share count. Curious which specific assumptions move the valuation dial the most.

Result: Fair Value of $23.00 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Intuitive Machines still faces clear risks. Any setback on lunar missions or unexpected share dilution could quickly challenge this 20.3% undervalued narrative.

Another View on Intuitive Machines Using Sales Multiples

The popular community narrative argues that Intuitive Machines is undervalued at $18.32 based on a $23.00 fair value that uses a forward P/S of 3.4x. Our data tells a different story. On current numbers, LUNR trades on a P/S of 6.5x, while the US Aerospace & Defense industry sits nearer 4.5x and peers average 4.3x.

Even more, the fair ratio implied by regression work is 2.2x, which is far below the current 6.5x. That wide gap points to clear valuation risk rather than a margin of safety. If the market were to move closer to that fair ratio, existing holders could feel real pressure on returns. How comfortable are you with paying that kind of premium for Intuitive Machines today?

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern around Intuitive Machines leaves you undecided, take a closer look at the underlying data, and move quickly to test your own thesis with 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.