Intuitive Machines (LUNR) closed FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$44.8 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.17, alongside a net loss of US$19.9 million, while on a trailing 12 month basis revenue was US$210.1 million and EPS stood at a loss of US$0.71 with a net loss of US$83.9 million. Over recent quarters, the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$62.5 million in Q1 2025 to US$50.3 million in Q2, US$52.4 million in Q3 and US$44.8 million in Q4, with EPS losses ranging between US$0.06 and US$0.22 across the period. Taken together, the latest print keeps the story centered on scaling revenue while working to tighten loss-making margins.

See our full analysis for Intuitive Machines.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the dominant bull and bear narratives around Intuitive Machines and where those narratives might need a reset.

TTM losses of US$83.9 million keep profitability in focus

• On a trailing 12 month basis, Intuitive Machines booked US$210.1 million in revenue against a net loss of US$83.9 million and a basic EPS loss of US$0.71, which sits alongside five year losses that have grown at about 53.5% per year.
• Critics highlight in the bearish narrative that persistent negative margins and heavy dependence on large government contracts could keep earnings under pressure, and the current loss profile lines up with that concern as quarterly net loss moved between US$7 million and US$25.3 million through FY 2025 while still relying heavily on mission and program awards to convert backlog into revenue.
  • The move from a Q4 2024 net loss of US$149.3 million to a Q4 2025 net loss of US$19.9 million shows that recent period results differ markedly from earlier TTM loss levels, which both bulls and bears will likely factor into their views on how quickly margins might improve.
  • Bears also point to the capital intensive model and customer concentration risk, and the trailing 12 month loss of US$83.9 million alongside ongoing investments highlighted in the narratives gives that risk a clear numerical anchor for anyone watching the path to profitability.

On this view, skeptics may feel recent earnings still leave little room for error before contract delays or cost overruns start to bite into already negative margins, and they may look to how management talks about funding and contract diversification in future updates before getting more comfortable with the long term earnings path. 🐻 Intuitive Machines Bear Case

High growth forecasts vs current P/S of 10.7x

• Forecasts in the data call for revenue growth of about 29.2% per year and earnings growth of about 55.77% per year with profitability expected within three years, yet the stock is currently trading on a P/S of 10.7x compared with peer and industry averages of 5.2x and 4.6x.
• Supporters in the bullish narrative argue that leadership in lunar missions and deep space infrastructure plus vertical integration could justify paying this higher multiple, but the current P/S premium means those growth expectations already carry a price tag that investors need to be comfortable underwriting.
  • The same narrative talks about revenue potentially reaching around US$519.5 million and earnings of US$39.4 million by 2028, which is a large step up from the trailing 12 month revenue base of US$210.1 million and loss of US$83.9 million, so any slowdown versus the projected 30% plus growth path could leave the P/S ratio exposed.
  • Analysts in the bullish cohort also assume margins move from roughly negative triple digit levels today to positive mid single digit or better in a few years, so the current valuation effectively leans on a shift from loss making to profitable that has not yet appeared in the historical EPS trend of quarterly losses between US$0.06 and US$0.22 per share in FY 2025.

If you are weighing the bullish case, it really comes down to whether those growth and margin targets justify paying roughly double the peer and industry P/S while the company is still in loss making territory today. 🐂 Intuitive Machines Bull Case

Volatile share price alongside a US$49.46 DCF fair value

• The stock trades at US$18.91 against a DCF fair value in the data of US$49.46, implying a large modeled gap, at the same time as the risk summary flags high share price volatility in the past three months plus dilution and insider selling over the past year.
• Consensus narrative views this kind of set up as a trade off between a potential valuation gap and execution plus sentiment risks, and the combination of a modeled fair value well above the current price with a P/S multiple already ahead of peers shows how sharply opinions can split.
  • On one side, the roughly 61.8% discount to the DCF fair value and forecast revenue growth of about 29.2% per year appeal to investors who put more weight on long term contract potential and expected profitability within three years than on recent volatility.
  • On the other side, the same data highlights shareholder dilution and recent insider selling, which some investors treat as warning signs that can add pressure in a stock that is already described as highly volatile and still posting an annual loss of US$83.9 million on US$210.1 million of revenue.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Intuitive Machines on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

With so many moving parts in the story, the key question is whether the current risk and reward trade off fits your own expectations. Take a closer look at the data, compare it with your thesis, and weigh the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

See What Else Is Out There

Intuitive Machines is still posting sizeable losses on US$210.1 million of trailing revenue, with volatile earnings, shareholder dilution and insider selling all keeping risk elevated.

If you want ideas that put stability and capital preservation ahead of this kind of volatility, check out 72 resilient stocks with low risk scores to focus on businesses with more resilient profiles.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.