Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:IOVA) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$71m missing analyst predictions by 5.6%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.19 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Iovance Biotherapeutics' nine analysts is for revenues of US$365.8m in 2026. This reflects a sizeable 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 30% to US$0.55. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$361.0m and losses of US$0.52 per share in 2026. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Iovance Biotherapeutics after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$8.80, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Iovance Biotherapeutics analyst has a price target of US$14.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that Iovance Biotherapeutics' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 39% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 81% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Iovance Biotherapeutics is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Iovance Biotherapeutics going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.