Apple Inc.(AAPL.US) is set to release its fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 earnings report on October 30, after the market closes. According to Bloomberg analysts' estimates, Apple’s Q4 revenue is expected to reach $101.7 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 7.13%. Earnings per share (EPS) are projected at $1.76, marking a significant year-over-year growth of 81.4%.  

(Note: Apple operates on a non-calendar fiscal year, starting on October 1 and ending on September 30 of the following year. Its fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 corresponds to the third quarter of calendar year 2025.)  

Looking back at Apple’s performance over the past eight quarters, the company has consistently exceeded market expectations for EPS. Following earnings announcements, its stock price has exhibited an average movement of ±2.00%, with the largest gain being +5.98% and the steepest decline being -3.74%. Despite this, the probability of Apple’s stock rising on the day of earnings release has been relatively low, at just 25%.  

iPhone 17 Sales Propel Apple Stock to New Highs; Buffett Misses Out on $50 Billion

Apple's stock has surged over 24% from its Q3 lows, reaching a new all-time high ahead of its upcoming earnings report next week. The company’s market capitalization has climbed to $3.8 trillion, making it the second-largest in the U.S., just behind NVIDIA Corporation(NVDA.US), which recently surpassed it.

The robust performance of Apple’s stock is primarily driven by stronger-than-expected sales of the iPhone 17 series. According to a report by Counterpoint Research, early sales of the iPhone 17 in China and the U.S. have been impressive, with volumes 14% higher than the iPhone 16 series. In China, sales of the basic iPhone 17 model have nearly doubled, sparking hopes of a long-awaited upgrade cycle.

Interestingly, Warren Buffett, the renowned "Oracle of Omaha," began significantly selling off Apple shares in 2024 and has continued to reduce his holdings this year. In hindsight, this move appears to have cost Berkshire Hathaway approximately $50 billion in potential gains, as Apple’s stock surged this week.

Despite the recent rally, Apple’s current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio exceeds 39, well above its 10-year average of 23 and higher than the Nasdaq-100 average. Among the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants, only Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US) has a higher valuation. Furthermore, only 58% of analysts tracked by the media recommend buying Apple, making it the least favored among the "Magnificent Seven," apart from Tesla.

Tim Cook Reveals Apple's AI Plans for China; Key Focus Areas for Upcoming Earnings Report

As Apple prepares to release its Q4 earnings, several key areas are drawing market attention:

• Tariff Relief and Sustained iPhone Sales

The market is keen to see if iPhone sales will continue their strong performance amid easing tariff pressures. The iPhone 17 series, with upgrades in chips, displays, and storage, has been well-received for its value. Analysts at Melius Research suggest Apple is "getting back on track," highlighting positive signals from the Chinese market and the momentum of new models. They anticipate that upcoming products will serve as additional catalysts.

Beyond the iPhone 17 series, the competitive landscape among U.S. carriers and the anticipated launch of the iPhone 18 foldable model in September 2026, featuring a 2nm A20 chip and a seamless design, are expected to support demand. Investors will be closely watching management's guidance on iPhone sales and whether imported smartphones in China will continue to receive exemptions.

• Siri Challenges and Apple AI's Entry into China

This month, Apple CEO Tim Cook appeared in Shanghai at the Global Wealth Management Forum 2025, revealing efforts to introduce Apple Intelligence in China. Siri, a key component of this vision, is set to receive upgrades in contextual understanding, screen content awareness, and in-app operations. However, the newly designed Siri voice assistant has yet to debut.

Tech insider Mark Gurman notes that while Apple's lag in AI hasn't hurt product sales (with the iPhone 17 performing well), the Apple Intelligence team is in disarray, having lost dozens of leaders and founding members, along with several top AI researchers. Gurman predicts the exodus will continue, especially if the new Siri, expected next spring, fails to impress.

• Strong Services Revenue and Device Recovery

Goldman Sachs forecasts robust resilience in Apple's services segment, with expected revenue of $28.2 billion, up 13% year-over-year, aligning with market consensus. Although App Store spending growth has slowed to 10%, down from 13% in Q3 FY2025, continued growth in iCloud+, App Store-related revenue (TAC), AppleCare+, and Apple Pay subscriptions offsets this decline.

In other devices, Mac revenue is projected at $8.681 billion, a 12% increase, while iPad revenue is expected to be $6.93 billion, remaining flat year-over-year. Demand is supported by updates to older devices, though educational purchase discounts have offset the boost to average selling prices from high-end models.

Top Wall Street Firms Raise Apple Price Targets Ahead of Earnings

According to TipRanks, several major Wall Street banks have raised their price targets for Apple ahead of its earnings report. Currently, 58% of institutions rate the stock as a "buy," with an average target price of $261.68, and the highest target at $315 per share.

• Goldman Sachs: Strong iPhone 17 Demand and Long-term Growth Potential

Goldman Sachs analysts expect Apple's quarterly earnings to exceed expectations, forecasting earnings per share of $1.81 and revenue of $103.5 billion, above the market consensus. They anticipate a 13% year-over-year growth in services revenue. The strong competition among U.S. telecom carriers and the anticipated release of the foldable iPhone 18 are expected to drive continued strong demand. Overall, Goldman views Apple's innovation and ecosystem advantages as key to its long-term growth potential.

Wedbush: Significant Price Target Increase to $310, Anticipates a "True Upgrade Cycle"

Wedbush has raised its price target for Apple from $270 to $310. Analysts there note that strong demand following new product launches indicates a "true upgrade cycle" after years of sluggish releases. They believe Wall Street's consensus forecast for Apple's FY2026 shipments—230 million units—is too low, suggesting a more realistic range of 240–250 million.

JPMorgan: Forecasts FY2026 iPhone Shipments at 236 Million, Anticipates Foldable iPhone Impact

JPMorgan predicts iPhone shipments of 236 million units for fiscal year 2026 (October 2025 to September 2026), a slight 2% year-over-year increase. The introduction of the foldable iPhone is expected to strengthen the upgrade cycle in FY2027, with pricing tailwinds accelerating low double-digit revenue growth for iPhones. They project overall company revenue growth in line with iPhone revenue, at 7% for fiscal year 2026 and 10% for fiscal year 2027. JPMorgan has raised its December 2026 price target for Apple from $255 to $280, reflecting a projected FY2027 P/E ratio of 29x.

Focus on Related Investment Opportunities

As Apple's earnings report approaches, investors are eyeing related stocks in the Apple supply chain. Here are some notable Apple-related stocks and their year-to-date performance:

Apple-Related ETFs for Investors to Watch:

• Direxion Daily AAPL Bull 2X Shares(AAPU.US) 
• T-Rex 2X Long Apple Daily Target ETF(AAPX.US) 
• Direxion Shares ETF Trust Direxion Daily AAPL Bear 1X Shares(AAPD.US) 

Are smart investors optimistic about Apple's quarterly earnings performance? With the iPhone 17 selling strongly, are you considering purchasing one? Feel free to share your thoughts and join the discussion!