Cryptocurrency punters are increasing the odds that a country other than the U.S. and Israel will strike Iran as the regional conflict spreads into Gulf states hosting American troops.

Probability Of Another Country Entering War Surges

Polymarket odds that a third country initiates a military attack against Iran by March 7 surged to 39%, up from 28% the day before. The possibility of the attack happening by the end of the month has risen to 66%.

More than $660,000 has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if the country uses aerial bombs, drones, or missiles against Iran or its embassies or consulates. Intercepted missiles or drones, as well as surface-to-air missile strikes, will not be enough to secure a “Yes” vote.

Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC). The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.

Middle East On The Boil

The odds surge after Iran struck the energy infrastructure of Gulf states. Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, shut its Ras Tanura refinery after a drone strike from Tehran. The Gulf Coast facility is one of the largest refineries in the Middle East and a key hub for Saudi crude exports. 

Qatar’s state-owned Qatar Energy also halted natural gas production after military attacks struck its facilities in Ras Laffan and Mesaieed Industrial Cities.

Iran’s missile and drone campaign has targeted or threatened U.S. interests and partners across the Gulf since Saturday’s U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran. U.S. diplomatic sites have also been targeted, including the U.S. embassies in the Saudi capital Riyadh and Kuwait City.

President Donald Trump said the military operation could last for weeks. He also said Iran’s leadership looked uncertain after U.S. and Israeli forces killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening hours of the weekend campaign.

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