Ireland highly exposed to AI-related U.S. equity price correction, finance ministry says
DUBLIN, July 22 (Reuters) - An AI-related correction in U.S. equity prices could leave Ireland's domestic economy 1.6% weaker within one year due to its close links to the U.S. technology sector, new research published by Ireland's finance ministry on Wednesday found.
In a central scenario where U.S. equity prices fall by around 10% and recover gradually, investment in Ireland drops 4.5%, exports 2.6% and personal consumption 0.7%.
Employment growth would be 0.7 percentage points weaker over the first year than it otherwise would have been. The foreign multinational-dominated technology sector currently accounts for just over 6% of total Irish employment.
The hit to Ireland's public finances could be "significant" given the highly remunerated technology sector accounts for 17% of all income tax collected in Ireland and over 20% of overall corporate tax receipts.
Under a more severe scenario of a 20% correction in U.S. equity prices, modified domestic demand (MDD) – officials' preferred measure of economic performance – would fall by around 3.25%.
Ireland is among the advanced economies most exposed to a correction in U.S. technology valuations, the paper said.
Strong Irish MDD growth in recent quarters has been driven by the AI infrastructure boom, separate research has shown. MDD grew by 4.9% last year.
