Academy Sports and Outdoors (ASO) is back on investor radar after Zacks lifted the stock to a Rank #2 Buy and the company introduced its new Academy Retail Media platform for brand advertisers.

Despite the fresh attention around Academy Sports and Outdoors after the Zacks upgrade and the launch of Academy Retail Media, the stock’s 90 day share price return is down 10.56%, while the 5 year total shareholder return of 41.30% contrasts with a 3 year total shareholder return that is down 10.43%. This points to solid long term gains but fading recent momentum.

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Academy Sports and Outdoors now sits in an awkward middle ground. The valuation appears inexpensive, yet the share price has already delivered strong multi year gains. How much potential upside remains ahead rather than behind?

Most Popular Narrative: 20.7% Undervalued

Against the last close of $48.71, the most followed narrative puts Academy Sports and Outdoors at a fair value of $61.42. This frames it as meaningfully below that reference point and sets up an expectations story built on expansion and cash returns to shareholders.

An ongoing store expansion strategy focused on secondary/tertiary markets with growing populations and suburban migration (20-25 new stores in 2025, robust early comps in new stores) sets up above-peer top-line growth and improved operating leverage as these locations mature.

Read the complete narrative. Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this fair value sits well above today’s price? The core narrative leans on measured revenue growth, firmer margins, and a future earnings multiple below many peers. The full set of assumptions shows how those ingredients combine into that $61.42 figure.

Result: Fair Value of $61.42 (UNDERVALUED)

However, the bullish Academy Sports and Outdoors story still faces pressure from heavier promotions and rising costs, which could squeeze margins and challenge those fair value assumptions.

Next Steps

With sentiment mixed around Academy Sports and Outdoors, this is a good moment to move beyond headlines and test the numbers yourself. To see which specific upside factors analysts are focused on, review the 4 key rewards.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.