Archer Aviation (ACHR) just delivered a busy stretch of news, including second quarter results, progress on FAA certification for its Midnight aircraft, and fresh updates on its ZEE aviation safety model.

Recent FAA progress on Midnight and the ZEE safety model has been met with sharp swings in Archer Aviation’s share price, including a 7 day share price return of 20.96% alongside a year to date share price return that is down 22.63% and a 1 year total shareholder return that is down 38.33%. This suggests momentum has picked up in the short term while longer term returns remain weak.

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Archer Aviation now sits at an interesting crossroads. Progress on Midnight and ZEE points to a stronger business story, yet the recent share price jump raises a separate issue. Does the current valuation still leave enough upside for new money?

Most Popular Narrative: 68.6% Undervalued

The most followed Archer Aviation narrative puts fair value at $20.04 per share, compared with the recent close at $6.29. That wide gap is built on a very specific view of how the business might scale across aircraft, software and defense.

Archer Aviation is positioned to be the first to scale in the trillion-dollar Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market. Unlike competitors struggling with "production hell," Archer has solved the manufacturing equation through its partnership with Stellantis, which is funding and building Archer's high-volume factory in Georgia. With a robust order book (United Airlines) and a clear path to FAA certification for its "Midnight" aircraft in 2025/2026, the current valuation reflects "bankruptcy risk" rather than "commercial launch" potential.

Want to see the full playbook behind that $20.04 figure? The narrative leans on aggressive revenue expansion, richer margins at scale and a future earnings multiple more often linked to mature growth companies.

Result: Fair Value of $20.04 (UNDERVALUED)

However, Archer Aviation’s story still faces real pressure points. These include the risk that FAA timelines slip further or that large customers reassess order commitments if economics change.

Next Steps

If Archer Aviation’s mix of risks and rewards feels finely balanced, now is the moment to review the details yourself and decide how that sits with your own risk tolerance. To help frame that view, take a closer look at the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.