• Wondering whether Atlantic Union Bankshares at around US$38.10 is offering fair value or a potential mispricing opportunity for your portfolio right now.
• The stock has posted returns of 1.4% over the last 7 days, 9.5% over 30 days, 7.3% year to date, 42.9% over 1 year and 67.4% over 3 years, with a 5 year return of 15.4%. This naturally puts a spotlight on what you might be paying for that performance today.
• These moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing news flow around U.S. regional banks, including investor focus on balance sheet resilience, funding costs and loan quality, as well as consolidation themes across the sector. Taken together, this context helps explain how the market is currently thinking about risk and reward for Atlantic Union Bankshares.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Atlantic Union Bankshares a valuation score of 3 out of 6. The rest of this article will unpack how different valuation methods line up for the stock and finish with a look at a more comprehensive way to think about its value.

Approach 1: Atlantic Union Bankshares Excess Returns Analysis

The Excess Returns model looks at how much profit a company is expected to earn above the return that shareholders require, based on its equity risk. It starts with the bank’s current book value and estimates how efficiently that equity can be used to generate earnings over time.

For Atlantic Union Bankshares, the model uses a Book Value of US$35.56 per share and a Stable EPS of US$4.01 per share, based on weighted future Return on Equity estimates from 7 analysts. The Cost of Equity is set at US$3.01 per share, which implies an Excess Return of about US$1.00 per share. The Average Return on Equity feeding into this is 10.58%. A Stable Book Value of US$37.88 per share, sourced from 9 analysts, anchors the long term capital base in the calculation.

Combining these inputs, the Excess Returns model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about US$59.80 per share. At a current share price around US$38.10, this framework indicates the stock may be trading at a discount of approximately 36.3% to the model’s intrinsic value estimate.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Excess Returns analysis suggests Atlantic Union Bankshares is undervalued by 36.3%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 53 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Atlantic Union Bankshares Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful yardstick because it directly links what you pay per share to the earnings that each share produces. It helps you see how many dollars of price the market is assigning to each dollar of current earnings.

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/E depends on how the market views a company’s growth prospects and risk profile. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower expected growth or higher perceived risk typically lines up with a lower P/E.

Atlantic Union Bankshares currently trades at a P/E of 16.20x, compared with a Banks industry average of 11.61x and a peer group average of 11.30x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Atlantic Union Bankshares is 17.40x. This Fair Ratio is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E could be given factors such as earnings growth characteristics, profit margins, risk profile, industry and market cap. It aims to provide a more tailored reference point than simple peer or industry comparisons. With the current P/E of 16.20x sitting below the Fair Ratio of 17.40x, the stock screens as undervalued on this metric.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Atlantic Union Bankshares Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as your way of attaching a clear story to the numbers. You set assumptions for Atlantic Union Bankshares’ future revenue, earnings and margins, then link that story to a financial forecast and fair value inside the Simply Wall St Community page that millions of investors use. You can then compare that Fair Value with today’s price to help decide whether to buy, hold or sell, with the Narrative automatically updating when new news or earnings arrive. For example, one investor might build a Narrative that leans into branch expansion, digital banking investment, governance reforms and the US$44.00 analyst fair value. Another might focus on regional concentration, integration risks and interest rate uncertainty to arrive at a more cautious fair value. Both can see in one place how their story translates into numbers.

Do you think there's more to the story for Atlantic Union Bankshares? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.