Criteo (NasdaqGS:CRTO) has drawn fresh investor attention after its recent share performance, with the stock up about 24% over the past month and roughly 11% over the past 3 months.

Despite the recent 23.68% 1 month share price return and 11.36% 3 month share price return, Criteo’s longer term picture is more mixed, with the 1 year total shareholder return declining 7.07%. This suggests improving near term momentum following weaker multi year performance.

If this shift in sentiment around Criteo has you thinking about other opportunities in the space, it could be a good time to look at 62 profitable AI stocks that aren't just burning cash.

Criteo looks like a solid ad tech business on paper, yet the share price has only recently started to recover. After this rebound, is the stock now pricing that strength fairly, or still offering a discount?

Most Popular Narrative: 52.1% Undervalued

Criteo’s most followed valuation narrative, created by user MRT23, places fair value at $45 per share compared with the recent close around $21.57, framing the current price as a steep discount to what this thesis sees as the company’s underlying worth.

The stock trades near or below the bear-case DCF intrinsic value (~$33). This implies you are paying for a business in secular decline and getting the Retail Media growth optionality largely for free.

Want to see why this $45 fair value does not rely on aggressive growth? The core assumptions focus on steady free cash flow and a moderate future earnings multiple. Curious how Retail Media, buybacks, and the discount rate all fit together? Read the full narrative to unpack the numbers behind this view.

Result: Fair Value of $45 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this Criteo narrative could be challenged if Performance Media weakens further or if additional large retailers cut back, putting more pressure on overall revenue.

Next Steps

If mixed opinions on Criteo leave you uncertain, take a closer look at the underlying numbers and recent updates so you can decide for yourself. Then weigh up both sides with the 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.