• Fluence Energy, Inc. recently announced an agreement with Avantus to supply its Smartstack energy storage solution and turnkey EPC services for the Rexford 2 project in Tulare County, California, which will pair a 200 MW / 800 MWh, 4-hour battery system with a solar facility using U.S. domestic content.
• The partnership highlights how Fluence is tying its Smartstack platform to U.S.-based manufacturing in states such as Utah, South Carolina, and Texas, potentially reinforcing its positioning around domestic content and grid-scale storage capabilities as construction targets for Rexford 2 move toward 2027–2028.
• Next, we’ll examine how this long-dated Rexford 2 contract, anchored in U.S. domestic manufacturing, could influence Fluence’s existing investment narrative.

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Fluence Energy Investment Narrative Recap

To be comfortable owning Fluence, you need to believe grid-scale storage can convert its current revenue growth and improving losses into durable profitability while managing policy and supply chain uncertainty. The Avantus Rexford 2 contract reinforces Fluence’s domestic manufacturing narrative and may support its near term commercial momentum, but it does not significantly change the key swing factors around tariff volatility and large project timing risk right now.

Among recent announcements, the June launch of the higher density Smartstack 10 MWh platform is most relevant here, because it underpins projects like Rexford 2 with a more standardized, higher energy density system. If Smartstack can consistently lower balance of plant costs and improve fleet performance, it could support Fluence’s revenue guidance of US$3.2 billion to US$3.6 billion for 2026 while also testing whether margins can hold up against intense global competition.

Yet despite the promise of domestic content projects like Rexford 2, investors should still be aware of the risk that repeated pauses in large contracts...

Fluence Energy's narrative projects $5.4 billion revenue and $203.6 million earnings by 2029. This requires 27.5% yearly revenue growth and a $245.4 million earnings increase from -$41.8 million today.

Uncover how Fluence Energy's forecasts yield a $18.59 fair value, a 30% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue could reach about US$7.0 billion and earnings US$373.3 million by 2029, but the execution risk around large projects and data center storage partnerships they focus on shows just how far opinions can differ and how news like the Avantus deal might eventually shift both the bullish and more cautious views.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Fluence Energy - why the stock might be worth as much as 96% more than the current price!

Reach Your Own Conclusion

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Fluence Energy research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Fluence Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Fluence Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.