• If you are wondering whether Global Partners at around US$47.66 is offering good value today, you are not alone. Many investors are asking the same question.
• The stock is up 12.8% year to date and 2.9% over the last month. However, it has seen a 1.2% decline over the past week and a 5.7% decline over the last year, which can change how investors think about both upside and risk.
• Recent news coverage around Global Partners has focused on its position in the energy sector, along with how its fuel distribution and related operations fit into broader industry trends. These stories provide useful context for the share price moves, especially for readers comparing it with other energy names.
• On our 6 point valuation checklist, Global Partners scores a 3 out of 6. Next we will look at how different valuation approaches arrive at that result and hint at an even better way to judge value that we will come back to at the end of the article.

Approach 1: Global Partners Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, giving an estimate of what the business might be worth per share right now.

For Global Partners, the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model uses recent Free Cash Flow, which on a last twelve month basis is a loss of $3.79 million, then builds up a forecast path. Analyst input extends to 2027, and Simply Wall St extrapolates beyond that. The projections in this model see Free Cash Flow reaching around $152.10 million in 2035, with interim years such as 2026 and 2027 at $97.91 million and $106.39 million respectively, all in $.

After discounting these projected cash flows back to today, the model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $70.63 per share, compared with the current share price of roughly $47.66. That implies the stock is 32.5% undervalued under this DCF view.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Global Partners is undervalued by 32.5%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 48 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Global Partners Price vs Earnings (P/E)

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful quick check because it ties the share price directly to the earnings that support it. It gives you a sense of how many dollars you are paying for each dollar of current earnings.

What counts as a “normal” P/E usually reflects how the market views a company’s growth potential and risk. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher risk tends to point to a lower, more cautious multiple.

Global Partners currently trades on a P/E of 22.32x. That sits above both the Oil and Gas industry average P/E of 14.61x and the peer average of 14.47x, which might suggest investors are willing to pay more for its earnings than for many peers.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Global Partners is 22.82x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E “should” be, given factors like the company’s earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap and specific risks. Because it blends these company level traits with sector context, the Fair Ratio can be more tailored than a simple comparison with peers or an industry average.

Compared with the current P/E of 22.32x, the Fair Ratio of 22.82x is very close, which suggests the shares are priced roughly in line with these fundamentals.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Global Partners Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives let you attach a clear story about Global Partners to the numbers you care about, linking your view of its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a fair value and then a simple comparison to today’s price. All of this sits inside an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates automatically as news or earnings arrive. For example, one Global Partners Narrative might lean closer to the analysts’ fair value of US$45.50, with assumptions similar to their revenue and earnings estimates. Another could take a more cautious view with a lower fair value and softer expectations. By comparing each Narrative’s fair value with the current share price, you can decide for yourself whether the stock looks closer to a buy, a hold or a sell based on the story you actually believe.

Do you think there's more to the story for Global Partners? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.