• If you are wondering whether Barrick Mining at around US$38.72 still offers value after a strong run, the key question is how its current price stacks up against what the business may be worth.
• The stock has seen mixed returns lately, with a 1.1% decline over the past week, a 7.0% decline over the last month, and a 12.2% decline year to date, following a 106.2% return over the last year and 110.1% over three years.
• Recent coverage has focused on Barrick Mining's position in the materials sector and how investors are reassessing miners after a period of strong share price gains. This context helps explain why the stock has pulled back in the short term even after an 87.2% return over five years.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation checklist, Barrick Mining scores 3 out of 6 for being undervalued, giving it a value score of 3. The rest of this article walks through how different valuation approaches arrive at that result, before finishing with an approach that can give you an even clearer picture of what the stock might be worth.

Approach 1: Barrick Mining Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required rate of return.

For Barrick Mining, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach. The latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is about $3.55b. Analyst and extrapolated projections suggest annual Free Cash Flow in the $2.8b to $7.8b range over the next decade, with an explicit forecast of $3.70b for 2030. Simply Wall St uses analyst estimates where available for the earlier years, and then extends the trend to fill out the 10 year path.

When all these projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model produces an estimated intrinsic value of about $36.73 per share. Compared with the recent share price of roughly $38.72, this implies the stock is about 5.4% overvalued. This is a relatively small gap and is well within the range where reasonable assumptions can move the result in either direction.

Result: ABOUT RIGHT

Barrick Mining is fairly valued according to our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), but this can change at a moment's notice. Track the value in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted on when to act.

Approach 2: Barrick Mining Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful way to see how much you are paying for each dollar of earnings. This makes it a straightforward cross check against the DCF outcome.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends on how fast earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Higher expected growth or lower perceived risk can support a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher risk usually calls for a lower one.

Barrick Mining currently trades on a P/E of about 13.0x, compared with an average of 22.2x for its peers and 23.2x for the wider Metals and Mining industry. Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” for Barrick Mining of 26.2x. This proprietary figure reflects the P/E that might be appropriate given factors such as earnings growth, profit margins, industry, market cap and specific risks, rather than relying only on broad peer or industry comparisons.

Because the Fair Ratio of 26.2x is higher than the current P/E of 13.0x, this approach suggests that Barrick Mining may be trading at a discount to what those fundamentals might justify.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Barrick Mining Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so Narratives are introduced here as your own story for Barrick Mining that links what you believe about its gold and copper opportunities, future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value and then a simple comparison to today’s price. All of this is available within an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that updates automatically when new information such as quarterly results or project news arrives. One investor might share a more optimistic Barrick Mining Narrative with a Fair Value around US$40.91, while another is more cautious with a Fair Value closer to US$20.44. This gives you a clear view of how different viewpoints can coexist around the same stock.

For Barrick Mining, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Barrick Mining narratives:

These give you a quick sense of how different investors are thinking about the same facts, and how that flows through to Fair Value and growth assumptions.

Fair Value: US$40.91 per share

Implied undervaluation vs. US$38.72: about 5.4%

Revenue growth assumption: 9.69%

• Views Barrick as a gold and copper producer with strong recent earnings, cash flow of US$2.5b in the first half of 2025, and rising free cash flow.
• Emphasizes copper growth projects such as Lumwana, Reko Diq and Fourmile, and sees copper as an important contributor to future revenue and free cash flow.
• Argues that the market is not fully reflecting Barrick's reserves, project pipeline and dual exposure to gold and copper in the current valuation.

Fair Value: US$20.44 per share

Implied overvaluation vs. US$38.72: about 89.4%

Revenue growth assumption: 4.5%

• Highlights quality assets in the US and other regions, but anchors Fair Value well below the current price despite a positive long term industry backdrop.
• Assumes moderate revenue growth with some benefit from a possible commodity cycle and projects like Reko Diq and Lumwana, while keeping an eye on costs and execution.
• Flags geopolitical and environmental risks in regions such as Africa, Pakistan and other jurisdictions as key constraints on how much value investors might be willing to ascribe to the stock.

Do you think there's more to the story for Barrick Mining? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.