• Wondering whether Bilibili at a last close of US$17.23 still lines up with what you think it is worth, or if the recent share price is sending a different signal about value?
• The stock has been under pressure recently, with the share price down 12.2% over the past week, 22.6% over the past month, 34.7% year to date, and 9.0% over the last year, while still showing a 2.0% gain over three years and a much larger 83.9% decline over five years.
• These moves come against a backdrop of ongoing interest in Bilibili's role in online media and services, which keeps the stock on many watchlists. At the same time, long term performance figures remind you that sentiment around the stock has shifted more than once before.
• Bilibili currently scores 3 out of 6 on Simply Wall St's valuation checks, and you can see the detailed breakdown in this valuation score. This sets up a closer look at standard valuation methods and points toward a more rounded way to think about value later in this article.

Approach 1: Bilibili Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a stock could be worth by projecting future cash flows and discounting them back to today using a required return. For Bilibili, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.

The latest twelve month free cash flow (FCF) is reported at about CN¥5,331.43m. Analyst based projections and subsequent extrapolations by Simply Wall St suggest FCF figures such as CN¥2,955m in 2026 and CN¥6,591.70m by 2029, with further estimated values reaching CN¥8,495.76m in 2035. All of these are in CN¥ and reflect cash available to equity holders after expenses, reinvestment, and debt servicing.

Discounting these projected cash flows back to today gives an estimated intrinsic value of US$31.70 per share. Compared with the recent share price of US$17.23, this implies the stock trades at a 45.6% discount to the DCF estimate, which indicates Bilibili appears undervalued according to this model alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Bilibili is undervalued by 45.6%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 48 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Bilibili Price vs Earnings

For profitable companies, the P/E ratio is a useful shorthand because it links what you pay for each share to the earnings that support that price. Higher growth expectations or lower perceived risk often justify a higher P/E, while slower growth or higher risk usually point to a lower, more conservative multiple.

Bilibili currently trades on a P/E of 34.53x. That is higher than both the Interactive Media and Services industry average P/E of 12.26x and the peer group average of 21.11x, which suggests the stock carries a richer earnings multiple than many competitors.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio of 27.26x is designed to tailor a “normal” P/E for Bilibili by factoring in earnings growth characteristics, its industry, profit margins, market cap and company specific risks. Because it is built around these fundamentals rather than simple comparisons, it can give a more customised view than just lining the stock up against industry or peer averages.

Comparing the current P/E of 34.53x with the Fair Ratio of 27.26x indicates the stock is pricing in more optimistic conditions than this framework would suggest.

Result: OVERVALUED

P/E ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Start investing in legacies, not executives. Discover our 20 top founder-led companies.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Bilibili Narrative

Earlier the article mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. This is where Narratives come in. They give you a simple story behind the numbers by linking what you believe about Bilibili’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast and then to a Fair Value you can compare with the current share price.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, Narratives are an accessible tool that let you see how different investors frame Bilibili. For example, a more bullish view might lean toward a Fair Value near US$37.90, while a more cautious view might sit closer to US$23.05. By comparing those Fair Values with today’s price you can decide whether the stock looks attractive or expensive based on the story you agree with.

Because Narratives are refreshed when new information such as news, updated earnings or revised analyst targets appears, the Fair Values that flow from them keep adjusting alongside the underlying story. This means your decision making is anchored to a living view of Bilibili rather than a one off model.

Do you think there's more to the story for Bilibili? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.