• If you are wondering whether Newmont at around US$109 per share still offers value, the answer depends on how you look at what the market is currently pricing in.
• The stock has pulled back over the last week and month, with a 0.8% decline over 7 days and a 4.4% decline over 30 days, yet it still shows returns of 7.7% year to date and 102.2% over the past year.
• These moves sit against a backdrop of ongoing attention on gold producers and large miners, as investors reassess how precious metals and related stocks fit into portfolios. Newmont often features in discussions about large scale gold exposure. This can sharpen market reactions to shifts in sentiment or commodity prices even when there is no single headline driving day to day moves.
• Simply Wall St currently gives Newmont a valuation score of 5 out of 6. The next sections will walk through the key valuation approaches behind that score, then finish with a broader way to think about what these numbers really mean for you.

Approach 1: Newmont Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of the cash a company could generate in the future and discounts those amounts back to today, giving an estimate of what the business might be worth now.

For Newmont, the latest twelve month free cash flow is about $8.1b. Simply Wall St uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model, which combines analyst projections and longer term estimates. For example, projected free cash flow in 2026 is $10.6b and the 2030 projection is $9.6b, with values between these years based on a mix of analyst views and extrapolations. All cash flows are modeled in $, and the discounting process reduces future figures to their estimated value in today’s terms.

Based on these inputs, the model calculates an estimated intrinsic value of about $147.45 per share. Compared with a current share price around $109, this estimate suggests the stock is about 26.1% below that DCF value on this measure.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Newmont is undervalued by 26.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 51 more high quality undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Newmont Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company like Newmont, the P/E ratio is a useful quick check because it links what you pay for the stock to the earnings it is generating today. Investors usually accept a higher P/E when they expect stronger growth or see lower risk, and look for a lower P/E when growth expectations are modest or risks are higher.

Newmont currently trades on a P/E of 13.76x. That sits below both the Metals and Mining industry average of 22.13x and the peer group average of 26.37x. Simply Wall St also calculates a “Fair Ratio” for Newmont of 27.79x. This is a proprietary estimate of what the P/E might reasonably be, given factors such as the company’s earnings growth profile, industry, profit margin, market cap and risk characteristics.

The Fair Ratio can be more informative than a simple comparison with peers or the broad industry because it adjusts for Newmont’s specific strengths and risk factors rather than assuming all miners deserve the same multiple. Compared with the current P/E of 13.76x, the Fair Ratio of 27.79x indicates that the stock is trading below that fair value benchmark.

Result: UNDERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Newmont Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Narratives on Simply Wall St let you attach a clear story to your numbers by linking your view of Newmont’s business, its future revenue, earnings and margins to a financial forecast, a Fair Value, and a simple comparison with today’s price. This comparison updates automatically when new information arrives, whether you lean closer to a higher Fair Value view around US$177.00, a lower view near US$51.70, or something in between like US$94.98 or US$110.65 that other investors in the Community are using to decide whether the current US$109 share price looks high, low, or about right for their own buy or sell decisions.

For Newmont however we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Newmont Narratives:

Together, these give you a clear range for what different investors think the stock is worth today, based on the same underlying business but very different assumptions about gold prices, asset quality, costs, capital allocation and execution risk.

Fair value in this narrative: about US$110.65 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: roughly 1.5% below this fair value estimate

Revenue growth assumption: 7.91%

• Sees Newmont as broadly fairly priced, with the fair value close to the current share price and supported by refreshed assumptions on gold prices, revenue growth and net margins.
• Focuses on steady revenue expansion, high profit margins and share count reduction, with a view that these factors together justify analyst consensus targets if execution and gold demand hold up.
• Flags meaningful risks around mine grades, rising capital spending, divestment reliance and leadership changes, and encourages you to test the analyst assumptions against your own expectations.

Fair value in this narrative: about US$51.70 per share

Implied pricing gap vs last close: around 110.8% above this fair value estimate

Revenue growth assumption: 12.93%

• Argues that even with higher revenue and margin assumptions, the present value comes out far below the current share price, so the stock screens as expensive on this framework.
• Leans on a long term view of gold, capital intensity and asset concentration risk, suggesting that higher spending and project timelines could leave less room for upside than some investors expect.
• Highlights that portfolio concentration, gold price volatility and long payback periods on new projects could weigh on returns if conditions differ from the optimistic commodity and cost scenario in the model.

If you want to see how other investors are joining these dots, and how they are turning these assumptions into specific price ranges, See what the community is saying about Newmont

Do you think there's more to the story for Newmont? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.