• If you are wondering whether Redwire's recent share price puts it on your watchlist for value, growth or neither, this article walks through the numbers so you can judge the stock based on its current price tag.
• Redwire closed at US$9.64, with returns of 12.1% over the last week, a 2.7% decline over 30 days, 6.8% year to date, a 13.7% loss over 1 year, a very large gain over 3 years and a 3.8% decline over 5 years.
• Recent news flow around Redwire has focused on its role in the space infrastructure and technology ecosystem, as investors assess how its contracts and partnerships relate to long term demand for its services. This context helps explain why the share price reaction has been mixed across different timeframes, as the market weighs execution risks against longer term potential.
• On Simply Wall St's valuation checks, Redwire currently has a valuation score of 0 out of 6. The next sections will break down what that means using different valuation approaches, before finishing with a more holistic way to think about the stock's value.

Redwire scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Redwire Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a stock could be worth today by projecting the company’s future cash flows and discounting them back using a required return. It is essentially asking what all those future dollars of potential free cash flow are worth in today’s money.

For Redwire, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow is a loss of $193.48 million. Analysts provide explicit projections out to 2027, where Free Cash Flow is expected at $1.83 million, and Simply Wall St extrapolates these further. By 2035, the model uses an estimated Free Cash Flow of $4.94 million, with each year’s figure discounted back to today under a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity framework.

Adding these discounted cash flows gives an estimated intrinsic value of about $0.21 per share. Compared with Redwire’s recent share price of US$9.64, the DCF output suggests the stock is very richly priced, with the intrinsic discount figure indicating it is very large relative to this model’s estimate of value.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Redwire may be overvalued by 4450.8%. Discover 44 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Redwire Price vs Sales

P/S is often used to value companies that are not yet consistently profitable, because sales tend to be more stable than earnings and are less affected by accounting choices. Investors then judge how much they are paying for each dollar of revenue, given the company’s prospects and risks.

What counts as a “normal” or “fair” P/S depends on how quickly revenue is expected to grow and how predictable that revenue looks. Higher growth and lower perceived risk usually justify a higher multiple, while slower growth or higher uncertainty tend to pull a fair multiple lower.

Redwire currently trades on a P/S of 5.69x, compared with the Aerospace & Defense industry average of 5.46x and a peer average of 2.15x. Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Redwire is 3.13x. This is a proprietary estimate of the P/S that might be expected given factors such as earnings growth, industry, profit margin, market cap and key risks. This Fair Ratio can be more informative than simple peer or industry comparisons because it adjusts for company specific characteristics rather than assuming one size fits all. On this basis, Redwire’s current P/S of 5.69x sits above the 3.13x Fair Ratio.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Redwire Narrative

Earlier it was mentioned that there is an even better way to think about valuation, and on Simply Wall St that shows up as Narratives. You pick or create a story for Redwire that links your view of its contracts, competition, margins, and execution risks to explicit revenue, earnings, and margin forecasts. These then flow through to a Fair Value that is automatically compared with the current share price so you can see whether your story implies the stock is expensive or cheap today. This all happens inside an easy Community page tool used by millions of investors. Each Narrative updates when new news or earnings arrive and can reflect very different perspectives, such as a bearish view that Redwire is worth US$7.00, a consensus-style view around US$13.28, or a bullish view at US$22.00. This allows you to quickly see which story best matches your expectations before making any buy or sell decisions.

For Redwire, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading Redwire Narratives:

Fair value used in this bullish narrative: US$22.00

Implied undervaluation versus the recent US$9.64 share price: about 56%

Revenue growth assumption: 33.18%

• Backlog from defense programs, NASA projects and space infrastructure contracts is expected to support compound revenue growth if execution stays on track.
• SpaceMD, microgravity manufacturing and other biotech initiatives are framed as potential high margin revenue streams that could lift long run profitability.
• Analysts behind this view are comfortable with a high future P/E multiple and rising share count as long as revenue growth, margin progress and cash flow improve over time.

Fair value used in this bearish narrative: US$7.00

Implied overvaluation versus the recent US$9.64 share price: about 38%

Revenue growth assumption: 29.99%

• Cost volatility, fixed price contract risk and recent losses are highlighted as key reasons earnings may stay under pressure even if revenue grows.
• Government budget timing, program slippage and heavy use of acquisitions and equity funding are flagged as sources of earnings volatility and dilution risk.
• Competition in defense tech, drones and in space biotech is viewed as a constraint on pricing power and margins, leading to a lower P/E multiple in this scenario.

If you want to see how these bullish and bearish stories line up with your own expectations for contracts, margins and balance sheet strength, it is worth reading them in full before deciding how Redwire fits into your portfolio time frame and risk tolerance. See what the community is saying about Redwire.

Do you think there's more to the story for Redwire? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.