• If you are wondering whether Mission Produce at around US$14.30 is offering fair value or an opportunity, you are not alone.
• The stock has had a mixed run, with a 1% decline over the last week, a 6.5% gain over the last month, and returns of 23.5% year to date and 22.2% over the last year. The 3 year return is 29.9% and the 5 year return is a 32.6% decline.
• Recent attention on Mission Produce has centered on its position in the global avocado and produce supply chain, as investors weigh how demand patterns and input costs might affect the business. Broader conversations around consumer trends and agricultural supply reliability have also kept the stock on many watchlists, helping to frame these price moves.
• Simply Wall St currently scores Mission Produce at 2 out of 6 on its valuation checks, reflecting where the company screens as undervalued and where it does not. Next, we will break down how different valuation methods assess the shares, then finish with a broader way to think about value that goes beyond any single model.

Mission Produce scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.

Approach 1: Mission Produce Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model takes estimates of a company’s future cash flows and discounts them back to today using a required rate of return, to arrive at an estimate of what the business might be worth per share.

For Mission Produce, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections. The latest twelve month free cash flow is about $36.76 million. Simply Wall St then projects free cash flow each year out to 2035, starting with an estimated $31.15 million in 2026 and gradually adjusting these figures over time, with all future values discounted back to today in dollar terms.

Putting those projections together, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $8.45 per share. Against a recent share price of about $14.30, this implies the stock is around 69.2% above that DCF estimate, which points to Mission Produce trading well above this particular cash flow based assessment of value.

Result: OVERVALUED

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Mission Produce may be overvalued by 69.2%. Discover 47 high quality undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.

Approach 2: Mission Produce Price vs Earnings

For a profitable company, the P/E ratio is a useful way to think about what you are paying for each dollar of earnings. It quickly shows how the market is pricing the business relative to its current profit, which is often where investors start their comparisons.

What counts as a “normal” P/E depends a lot on growth expectations and risk. Higher growth and lower perceived risk can justify a higher P/E, while lower growth or higher uncertainty usually point to a lower multiple. Mission Produce currently trades on a P/E of 26.9x. That sits above the Food industry average of about 24.0x, and below the peer average of 47.1x.

Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for Mission Produce is 15.7x. This is a proprietary estimate of the P/E that might be reasonable given the company’s earnings profile, industry, profit margins, market cap and risk factors. Because it incorporates these company specific inputs, it can be more tailored than a simple comparison to broad industry or peer averages. With the current P/E of 26.9x versus a Fair Ratio of 15.7x, the shares currently appear to trade above this Fair Ratio based assessment.

Result: OVERVALUED

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Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Mission Produce Narrative

Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, which are simply your story about a company linked directly to your own forecast for its revenue, earnings and margins, and then to a fair value estimate that you can compare with the current share price to help decide whether you see Mission Produce as attractive or not.

On Simply Wall St, Narratives sit inside the Community page, where millions of investors share their views. Each Narrative ties a clear thesis about the business to a structured financial forecast that automatically refreshes when new information like earnings or news is added.

For example, one Mission Produce Narrative on the platform currently assigns a fair value of US$17.50 per share based on assumptions about future revenue of US$1.1b, earnings of US$40.7m, profit margins of 3.8% and a future P/E of 35.1x. Another Narrative could reasonably arrive at a lower fair value if the author assumes weaker revenue, lower margins or a smaller P/E multiple, showing how the same facts can lead to very different conclusions about what the shares are worth today.

Do you think there's more to the story for Mission Produce? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.